Cracks in China's Belt and Road Initiative

“What’s the impact of China here? How are they viewed?” We asked this question to an Uzbek investor over coffee in a quaint cafe in Tashkent - we ask it in nearly every conversation we have abroad. We were met with a familiar response - a frustrated laugh, rolling eyes, and a sigh followed by a wild tale of a large, expensive, and failed infrastructure project.  

Prior to setting out on our journey, we had read of China’s overwhelming influence in the frontier and emerging world through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). We had read of thousands upon thousands of miles of roads being built and of new ports, bridges, and airports springing up in all corners of the globe (151 partner nations are a part of the initiative). Given this, we expected to hear songs of Chinese praise everywhere. To our surprise, this has not been the case. 

While we have indeed seen and felt China’s extensive and formidable presence all over the globe, citizens we speak to in host markets have an overwhelmingly negative view of China’s activities in their country. We are told stories of huge project failures, deadlines missed, completed projects that are later seized, corruption on a massive scale, and infrastructure that crumbles quickly after completion. On many tours, guides have pointed out sprawling worker villages - “mini Chinas” complete with a network of Chinese grocery stores, dim sum restaurants brimming with expats eager to have a vodka-fueled night, and even fortress-esque Chinese casinos established to support the non-local workforce. Locals often complain to us how little they trust China, how bad Chinese quality is, and how projects bring in a legion of foreigners.

While the headlines around BRI are flashy and impressive, the reality and outcomes are often marred by complications. Due to China’s and many of the host countries’ tightly controlled media - stories of these project failures and culture clashes are not easily found online. Countries that are bamboozled by these fiasco projects are embarrassed to admit the failings. In addition, Chinese media only boasts about its construction prowess and growing influence. 

The monuments overlooking the Panama Canal and Bridge of the Americas celebrate China's presence. Panama announced departure from BRI earlier this year.

The reality on the ground needs to be seen and heard directly to understand. Cracks are literally and figuratively forming in this project. Below, we detail our first-hand accounts from our time on the road.

Chinese grocery stores, casino, and restaurants in Africa

Pokhara Airport - An Airport to Nowhere 

Our first of many run-ins with deeply flawed BRI projects occurred in Pokhara, Nepal - the country’s second largest city. In an effort to avoid traveling on Nepal’s frightening roads and save a few hours, we decided to treat ourselves with a flight back to Kathmandu. Upon pulling up to the airport, we were greeted with bad news – all the flights for the day were cancelled and in fact all of the flights for the past four days had been cancelled and there was no clarity as to when the airport would open back up. Odd! 

We soon discovered why a functional airport would have REALLY been valuable as we jostled back to the capital on harrowing mountain roads for the next 7 hours. We used this time on the road to understand what went wrong with this infrastructure project. It was of course a BRI project funded by loans from the state-owned EXIM Bank of China and built by state-owned China CAMC Engineering. The Chinese firms contracted for construction cut corners (building the runway too low among other issues) - greatly compromising on safety standards and functional features of the airport. Planes can only take off in pristine conditions - an overwhelming problem in a region with challenging weather and terrain. While the airport is marketed as international, few if any international airlines are willing to take the risk. Even if safety standards were met, Indian airlines are not want to use this airport due to geopolitical tensions with China.

This barely functional airport was completed massively over budget and behind schedule. There is only one answer as to how such a disastrous scenario could have played out… over $100mm of corruption funds exchanged hands over the course of this project. 

Good luck, Nepal! The nation is now left to pay the loans back on an airport that cannot generate projected revenue and citizens / tourists will continue to take the mountain roads to access this region. The only true winners in all of this (alongside the corrupt politicians) may be the taxi drivers.

Uzbekistan - A $300mm Stadium Complex Disaster

In 2019, Uzbekistan was awarded the right to host the Asia Youth Games scheduled for May 2025. The government began making preparations for this event and classically signed on China CAMC Engineering to construct a ~$300 million sports complex in Tashkent called “Olympic City”. This project, part of BRI, was one of the first projects the Uzbek government allowed Chinese labor, versus local, to construct. 

In December 2024, it was announced that the project would NOT be completed in time and that Bahrain would be hosting the Asia Youth Games instead. Quite a failure. Now, this massive 100 hectare project with 5 stadiums and 15 outdoor sports fields stands in the center of Tashkent without a clear use case. 

Funnily enough, when you try to find information about Tashkent’s Olympic City project online - you’ll find articles like this released in June 2025 (long after announcement that the project catastrophically missed its deadline…) titled “New Olympic City in Uzbekistan Showcases China’s Construction Prowess”. The first paragraph reads: 

“Central Asia's largest sports complex, built by a Chinese company in Uzbekistan, is ready to host the 2025 Asian Youth Games. As the first major project completed under China-Uzbekistan cooperation, it took just two years to build using advanced green technology.” 

This article is written by a Hong Kong-based news site that has an incredibly strong pro-Beijing tilt… regardless, it is maddening to see the blatant lies. From what we hear - this embarrassing project failure will taint Uzbek-China relations and will limit Uzbekistan’s willingness to allow projects staffed with Chinese labor to take place in the country going forward. 

Sri Lanka - Port Debt Disaster

When construction began on Hambantota Port in 2008, the Sri Lankan government was just excited someone would help them finance this project. At the time, Sri Lanka was in the midst of a decades old civil war. Infrastructure was decaying and they needed help. As financing pitches to western governments including the United States and India came up empty, Sri Lanka turned to China for assistance. After several forays to Beijing, the government of Sri Lanka returned to Colombo triumphant and with a financing plan in hand. They had no idea that what they had just signed would become the poster child of BRI disaster. 

Eight years after construction began, Hambantota Port was raising alarm bells across the West. As debt repayment became challenging, the government had to sell off an 80% stake in the underperforming port to CMPort, a Chinese state-owned enterprise. Concerns rightfully arose that this was a debt trap, an opportunity to seize vital infrastructure assets for potential Chinese military use. 

While the intentionality of default is up for debate, the reality is China is taking outsized bets in excessively risky markets on critical infrastructure. Defaults will continue to happen and the potential repercussions need to be taken seriously. Clearly, the United States is. In 2023, the US DFC announced a $553 million loan to support the West Container Terminal in Colombo.   

New Colombo Port project

Rough Roads in Madagascar

Bumping down the street in Antananarivo, the capital of the island nation of Madagascar, we could not believe how bad the roads were. Potholes were everywhere forcing cars to trickle down the street. Outside of the capital, things got significantly worse. We had never seen such bad roads before. When we started asking locals why, everyone blamed China.  

Whether it is true or not in every case (China has actually not built that many of the roads in Madagascar) we found this mentality intriguing. Beyond the roads, locals here also complained about the Chinese worker villages.  

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We obviously understand that BRI has accomplished much, but believe its worth flagging the many cracks we see, hear, and experience all over the world. The initiative has advanced many important strategic objectives on behalf of China - chiefly increasing access for Chinese goods to reach its export partners and expanded ability for China to import valuable raw materials back. It’s also importantly building influence with high-level government officials around the world. 

Top: Construction and transit on the Pamir Highway in Tajikistan. Bottom: Extensive tunnel projects in Georgia.

Many BRI projects are successful and are mutually-beneficial to the community they are built in, providing some level of infrastructure development for people who wouldn’t get it if not for China. China’s state-owned enterprises stomach losses on financially challenging projects - accepting risks that commercial businesses from other nations would not be willing to take on at Beijing’s behest to push forward national interests. We witnessed impressive improvements to remote areas of the Pamir Highway in Tajikistan and improved roads in many parts of Africa that should immensely benefit the people in the surrounding communities. What is interesting though, is that by and large people in these communities still do not like nor trust China. Its hard to know if this sentiment ultimately matters at all, but we find it worth noting.  

For now, China seems to be making important government connections and winning vital contracts (critical minerals, etc.) but how long will this last? While we should not underestimate China’s abilities and the impact of BRI, it is also important to keep in mind cracks forming. 

For the US government, these cracks could create opportunity. There could be a way to capitalize on this negative sentiment - from both citizens around the world and businesses reliant on this infrastructure. For example, local frustration could ultimately become a threat to political stability for governments abroad. For international businesses, the often low-quality infrastructure will create unexpected headaches and real financial consequences. All stakeholders involved in BRI should proceed with caution.